Theory

Magic : The Classroom – Choices – Part III

By Dan Eckstein ⋅ November 3, 2009 ⋅ Post a comment ⋅

In the last couple of weeks I’ve had lessons involving Sealed and how to analyze your card choices. Both of these lessons were designed so that we begin to think of cards by their Expected Turn of Play (ETP). We also looked at how some cards may have a strong effect versus their ETP but that was because of some other costs beyond mana requirements. Please review these lessons before reading further.

Today I’ll begin evaluating Zendikar specifically by looking at its card types. In sealed the most important card type is creatures. While in Constructed it’s possible to see decks that win by noncreature means because of some cool combo or relentless burn to the dome in Sealed it just isn’t plausible. You may occasionally see someone cast Lightning Bolt targeting a players last 3 Life but for the most part it’s a creature blasting through the red zone that wins the game.

When looking at creatures we need to look at what benefit we get from the card versus its ETP. First we’ll look at the “Vanilla” creatures. Vanilla is how we name creatures that have no special abilities. Vanillas in the game of Magic are becoming fewer and fewer. In fact there are only 5 Vanilla creatures in the whole Zendikar set. From my viewpoint I look to the following formula when evaluating vanilla creatures. Power plus toughness divided by 2 needs to be equal to or greater than its ETP. So let’s see how our vanillas line up.

Stonework Puma is the easiest on ETP since it has no color requirements so if I have 3 land I can play it no matter what my deck is. That’s a good benefit but using the formula we only get 2 benefit from ETP of 3. Pillarfield Ox and Vastwood Gorger also don’t make the cut very often since the ox gives us 3 benefit to 4 ETP and Gorger yield 5.5 to an ETP of 6. However it is important to notice that both creatures toughness is high enough to survive multiple removal spells and multiple power levels from creatures in Zendikar. That means they will survive more turns that other creatures so that may make them playable in a pinch. Shatterskull Giant is probably the least playable of the Vanillas since his double red pushes his ETP up to 4.5 and only yields 3.5 benefit from his Power and Toughness. Lastly, Kraken Hatchling is the only card that gives more benefit than ETP cost. The formula yields 2 while you can expect to play it as early as turn 1. Sure it isn’t going to win a game for you but it goes a long way in stopping you from losing.

The rest of the numerous creatures in Zendikar must be evaluated in a more complex manner. Basically we need to see if there additional text is worth the extra ETP cost involved or the extra benefits are worth the drawback that’s in their text. I’m going to hit a few examples and my scale maybe different than yours in some areas but the examples should provide you with the ground work for your own conclusions.

First let’s look at creatures with classic abilities. Basically each ability has a justifiable ETP costs. When can figure each cost by researching the archives of Magic and comparing the cost increase for an ability. Be careful how far back you go for your values. The infamous “power creep” has made many abilities cheaper than they used to be.

One of the most classic abilities is Flying. It’s become such a regular thing that in today’s Standard it’s almost impossible to find a card that Flies but does nothing else. The reason we want no other effects is so we can get a pure ETP evaluation of the card. Wind Drake is the best example. It yields 2 benefit in our P/T formula but has an ETP of 3. Therefore we can think that Flying cost 1 ETP. In Zendikar we have no pure flyers but Heartstabber Mosquito and Kor Aeronaut come close since their Kicker is the added ability and we don’t have to pay that cost. Using flying as a plus 1 to ETP Kor Aeronaut comes out ahead of normal and therefore a good pick. P/T formula yields 2 plus 1 for flying means an ETP of 3 would be fine while the double White for Kor Aeronauts puts it’s ETP of 2.5ish depending on how white our mana base is. While the Mosquito had an ETP of 1 to high for its flying, power and toughness the kicker is a much stronger than the Aeronauts so it’s still playable if you’re planning on kicking it.

Another classic of course is Trample. Once again you really have to dig through the box of cards to find a Standard format plain Trampler. Stampeding Rhino fits the bill nicely showing that Trample adds 1 to the Expected Turn of Play. Curious though is Rhox Charger. This is one of many cards that basically says Exalted is a free mechanic. In Zendikar we have only two creatures that have full time trample. One is Mythic and the other rare so they aren’t likely to land in your card pool but if they do I would seriously consider them in your list. Rampaging Baloths has an ETP of 6 (note: 6 mana is high enough the double Green doesn’t affect ETP) while P/T benefit of 6 as well. The Trample is basically free as is the Landfall which by the way only produces a 4/4 for free. Last I checked that was pretty playable. The other is Terra Stomper. Its ETP is a bit harder to figure. I would place it at 6 as well but it also gives us 8 in the P/T Benefit formula. That’s pretty strong but we also get Trample and it can’t be countered on top of that. Let me double check my records but that seems like a bomb by the numbers.

We could go through all of the basic mechanics and come up with their cost in terms of ETP. In fact now that I think of it lets make that the homework today. Post in the comments the ETP cost of any other mechanic and post the card that justifies your opinion. That way we can all gain knowledge from each other.

The real dilemma is evaluating new mechanics in a new expansion. In Zendikar we have Kicker, Landfall, and Allyship (I made that one up).

Kicker of course doesn’t directly affect ETP since we have to add cost to make the kicker. It’s really simple to just think about straight ETP for the creature and then see if the kicker is worth the extra mana cost just as if we had two spells in one. Of course the overall advantage of basically having two options in every card makes kicker something we should always consider. But our conversation right now doesn’t really look at that yet. The only real question is whether it is worth keeping a sub par creature for the potential of being able to kick it when needed. Torch Slinger for example has an ETP that is a turn late for the P/T formula. Its kicker is also relatively blah. As burn goes 2 damage to just creatures isn’t worth 2 mana. Put them together and you still haven’t made up for the cost. While if your opponent happens to play some nonbasic land Goblin Ruinblaster would be usable. The Creature by itself is easily 1.5 turns too slow but if you get a chance to kick it then it’s justifiable. Its land destruction for four which is normal and you get a 2/1 stick as a bonus. If Wizards hadn’t said nonbasic this card would be sick but as it is I would keep it handy but not Main deck.

Landfall is quite perplexing since each some many different effects happen from different cards. For our purposes her we are going to say that we will be able to trigger landfall once. It may be that each landfall will make us play it a turn later so we can play the creature and then play our land for the turn. This would make the ETP go up one but there would also be times that our opponent won’t find removal in time and we would get multiple land drops with the creature in play. This variability is too unpredictable so we are going to say just 1 landfall each.

The easiest to evaluate Landfalls are the creatures that get a temporary boost in Power and Toughness until end of turn. These effects are temporary and as such they seem to be cheapest. Steppe Lynx is only a .5 for ETP of 1 but with a land fall he becomes 2.5 for the same ETP. Effectively saying that the Landfall bonus cost us .5 and its potential is a gain of 1.5 in the short term. While Windrider Eel cost is a full one over expected ETP(2 from P/T and 1 for Flying) and only gives a short term plus one for the Landfall. Plated Geopede and Territorial Baloth do the same. The Geopede does have First Strike as an additional bonus so depending on the value of First Strike it is better. (Maybe you could be the first to figure out First Strike for the Homework.) The worst temp pumper is Hagra Crocodile. Not only does landfall apparently cost us two turns but we also get the can’t block drawback. And for a bonus that lets us break even at best. Shame on anyone playing that card. Even Hedron Scrambler is better than that. The rest of the Landfalls fall into rarity slots. The uncommon almost seem like free effects while the rare’s and Mythic seem to give us cheaper ETP for extra bonus’s. All we really need to do is keep them in play long enough.

If the Landfall was varied then the Allyship is just a wishy washy. In the common slot we have additional ETP cost ranging from free up to 1.5 turn delay. The free is obviously the best. Oran-Rief Survivalist, Tuktuk Grunts, and Umara Raptor are all cards that with the +1/+1 counter come out the same as they would to just cast the same size creature and have to potential to see other allies to make the stronger. I consider these all to be playable on their own and the Allyship is a bonus. One the other end Jogara Bard is unplayable. 2.5 for an ETP of 4 and an effect that is only useful IF the Bard isn’t the first to the “party.” In the uncommon Allies we find almost no playables compared to cost. The worst is Seascape Aerialist where we extend our ETP by 2.5 just to make other Allies (that we probably don’t have) fly. Hagra Diabolist adds the same to our ETP value but at least he makes our opponent lose life. Kazandu Blademaster on the other hand is quite a package. For an ETP of 3 we get a 2/2 with First Strike and Vigilance. That on its own is worth the price of admission. Add a couple of other Allies in there and we have some real muscle. Most of the rares are playable if you get one. The big exception is Kabira Evangel. It only has an additional cost of .5 but Protection until end of turn and non-instant speed is pretty lame. If it had Flash then it would be very useful but it doesn’t so it’s relegated to nearly unplayable.

Hope this has given you some food for thought in your upcoming Sealed tournaments. I see we are almost out of time. The bell just seems to get faster and faster. I do want to say quick congratulations to the Football team on their District Championship. Hope you make it to States!

Dan is a High School Teacher who does everything he can to squeeze Magic into his schedule. Between being a Father, Husband, and Coach it’s pretty hard. Articles by Dan focus on tips and lessons for beginners that he has learned while teaching his students how to play their best. As a player Dan has a propensity to go Crazy For Combos so occasionally these articles happen as well.

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Last 4 posts Magic the Classroom – Extended Fun Magic the Classroom – The Words Magic the Classroom – Idol/Idle Inspirations Magic the Classroom – Concentrate

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1. While I don’t agree with the ETP evaluation system I feel it provides a great foundation on which to teach new players how to evaluate their card selection, not just in sealed, but in general. There are going to be times when the evaluation doesn’t hold up at all, though.

   For instance – landfall is much more awesome when you have harrow, Khalni heart, etc. Allies way better when you play with a full deck of ally’s.

   Those cards will also have a potential impact on what your ETP is. They can get you from turn “three” to turn “five” using the ETP system. And if Khalni is on the field first? They can take you from turn three to turn seven.

   But yeah, it’s a really good foundation on which to teach new players to evaluate their cards.

   Steve Floor | November 4, 2009, 11:41 am | #

2. Both acceleration and synergy are upcoming. remember it’s a multiparter.

   Thanks for your contribution and comments.

   I appreciate hearing from the readers.

   Mtgxman | November 4, 2009, 12:08 pm | #

3. I think I have something more productive to say than Steve’s comment. The ETP system is a solid system when it comes to evaluating vanilla creatures and creatures with non-triggered abilities (trample, first strike vigilance, etc.), but when it gets to landfall and allies, it requires almost a whole new system. The system has to be a dynamic form of ETP where not only does it have the regular ETP values (looking at the turn two Kazandu Blademaster which shatters it’s ETP to begin with) but then you have to account for scaling, such as a turn 3 umara raptor. Not only do you have to scale the Blademaster’s value up for becoming bigger, you scale Raptor up for making the Blademaster bigger. Landfall scales similarly based on how many cards such as harrow or khalni heart you have to play or in play. Balroth Woodcrasher, by the vanilla ETP system, is a card which is never, EVER worth playing. But I can not count how many times that woodcrasher went from a 4/4 to a 16/16 trample due to a well timed khalni heart trigger or harrow. 16 + (say) 1, so 17 for 6, yeah, ridiculous. Even if it’s not best case scenario, you’re still looking at hopefully hitting that land drop anyways and at least getting a temporary 9 for six.

   My current remedy for landfall is to take all the temporary effects and divide them by half. So, if a woodcrasher gets +4/+4 and trample, that creature only receives and +2.5 value to it’s ETP. This makes it a 4+2.5, so a 6.5 for 6. Thus Woodcrasher is a playable card. Landfall can also be scaled up by .5 for each card which allows the play of more than one land, i.e. Fetch Lands, Harrow, etc. (By this same system, steppe lynx is a 1.5 for 1, making it pretty good. I would also add at least 1 due to the fact that it’s going to hit multiple land drops due to it’s possibility to be a turn one drop.)

   For Allies, here’s my ETP solution. First, you construct the ETP value of the card AFTER it triggers on itself. We’ll use Umara Raptor. The ETP value for the Raptor after trigger is 3 for 3, so it’s good. Now, my scaling for allies (not just allies which gain counters) is to add +.5 to each ally’s ETP value for each ally which will be in the deck. This is due to each ally giving another ally +1/+! PERMANENTLY. Ideally, you’d play all your allies and none of them would die, however this is not the case, which is why it is only .5 and not 1.

   I’ll start on the homework and get back to you.

   Samuel Blitch | November 4, 2009, 10:45 pm | #

4. Cascade – Enlisted Wurm is a better judge than Bloodbraid Elf due to the iffiness of the mana cost. Could be four, could be five, but if you did your land base right, then it is four. Wurm is also more dramatic, let me explain. Wurm is a 5 for 6 if you look at it with no effect, making cascade a 1, however it becomes much more valuable when you cascade into something like a Ranger of Eos. You’ve not only played the Wurm for it’s ETP value but also the ETP value of what it cascaded into. The cascade value, therefore, is the average of all the ETP values of all cards that the Wurm can feasibly Cascade into. (Makes a giant number when there are Bloodbraid Elves and Rangers of Eos and similar cards in your deck……… or Baneslayer)

   Double Strike – I’m going to use Viashino Slaughtermaster to define this one. a 1R 1/1 with Double Strike gives the ability a value of 1. Often times though this ability is paired with another such as a +1/+1 buff, or the ability to play goblins, but I’m counting those as freebies. Final Verdict – 1 (I did consider enchants and artifacts… not that important)

   Deathtouch – Giant Scorpion, a 2 for 3 with just Deathtouch, Deathtouch is 1

   Exalted – This was the most difficult one to determine because so many cards give it to you for free. The number I came up for it is 1, using a mix of Akrasan Squire and Outrider of Jhess. Akrasan Squire is a 1 for 1 which has exalted (0), Jhess is a 2 for 4 with exalted (2), so I averaged them, seeing as almost all other cards give it to you for free, and made it one. So anything with a free exalted is actually awesome.

   First Strike – Lightbringer Paladin if you ignore the “Destroy evil” ability. 4 for 5 with First Strike. First Strike = 1 (Also, Razorfoot Griffin is 2 for 4, plus 1 for flying, plus 1 for First Strike, 4.)

   Flying – defined by you, 1

   Haste – I’m going to say that since Bushwhacker can kick to make it a 1.5 for 2 with haste, and since haste has it’s own card (burst of speed) haste is .75. (Better than .5 on Bushwhacker since it gives it to everybody, worse on burst of speed because it cost it’s own mana, though it gives it to everybody.

   Intimidate – I love how Wizards spells these out for us. Example, Bladetusk Boar – 2.5 for 4. Seeing how Bladetusk boar can sometimes be the nuts, I’m going to say 1. It’s a total of three, not four, because it is only SOMETIMES good. A Puma stops it, any red stops it, and both of those are two popular these days. It’s definatly still playable, just not all the time. So actually give this two values, 1 and 1.5. 1 for the mirror or any artifact creatures, 1.5 for anything else.

   Lifelink – The nuts. The absolute worst example is Rhox War Monk. It has an ETP of, in my opinion, 3-5, I’m averaging 4. So, a 3.5 for 4. That would make lifelink .5 right? Wrong. Lifelink scales with power. I figure it to be .25 per every point of power. So, Rhox War Monk is actually a 4.25 for 4, pretty good eh?

   Protection – I will say one, although every card which has the ability, from what I’ve seen, balances out normally on P/T alone, then has a nutty ability like “Exile that permanent” or First Strike (Pokes Devout Lightcaster and White Knight) to make it insane, THEN YOU ADD PROTECTION. Final Verdict – One for merit (.5 for anything that’s not a color)

   Reach – Giant Spider, 3 for 4, reach gives 1. Second string, Oran-Rief Recluse, 2 for 3, reach gives 1.

   Regenerate – I’ll give it .75 because it’s insane on River Boa and Cudgel Troll

   Shroud – Jar Jar Sphinx is a 5 for 6 with flying (makes it 6) and shroud (6?) In all cases where shroud is actually good on a creature, that creature is good on it’s own. So I’ll give shroud a .75, just because it makes Jar Jar Sphinx that much more badass.

   Trample – defined by you, 1

   Vigilance – Here’s the issue, if you believe every number I’ve said up to this point, then this skill is free. On every creature, even Felidar Sovereign, the skill is added on to creatures who either balance out or are the nuts. (Sovereign’s lifelink makes it a 5+1 for 6 with vigilance, Griffin Sentinel is a 2 for 3 with flying (3 for 3) and vigilance (3? for three)) So, I will give it a 1, because if you find a card with vigilance, it’s good.

   That should be all of them, alphabetically, not including landfall and kicker because I defined those in my last post.

   For fun, let’s do a tally on everybody’s favorite card, Baneslayer Angel.

   5 for 5, holy crap, it wins already, *in the mainboard*
   flying, 6 for 5, wow, it’s like an Air Elemental +1, *definitely*
   First Strike 7 for 5, *absolutely*
   Lifelink adds 1.25, 8.25 for 5 *EVERY TIME, I SWEAR!*
   Prot from Demons and Dragons makes it 9.25, +1 because of all the things that, as MC Hammer so aptly put, can’t touch this.

   So on a scale of 1-5, Baneslayer gets a 9.25 according to my numbers……. cool.

   That’s my homework, so now everybody else can criticize my reasoning skills before realizing I’m right.

   Samuel Blitch | November 4, 2009, 11:59 pm | #

5. Wow, Sam you get the A. The curve is blown for that response. Great job.

   Anyone else can add on as well.

   Mtgxman | November 5, 2009, 2:14 pm | #

6. This analysis is missing numerous important factors, and is based off of a method that is completely misguided. For example, Wind Drake is BETTER than Grizzly Bears. Sure, maybe when Wizards costs a given flyer they make it cost one more–but the card will be BETTER than the corresponding ground-pounder, so when WE evaluate the cards we should count flying as being more than one. Further, WotC costs things based off of rarity and color, too. Take, for example, Vampire Nighthawk–we can’t accurately reverse engineer the benefit of Flying + Deathtouch + Lifelink because it is SUPPOSED to be ahead of the curve.

   Another clear reason why this analysis needs a lot of work is that it rates cards as follows:

   Mon’s Goblin Raiders > Grizzly Bears > Hill Giant

   Hill Giant ~= Faerie Squadron (3 Benefit, 4 ETP vs. 4 Benefit, 5+ ETP)

   It is very clear that Hill Giant > Bears > MGR (Depending on your deck and the speed of the format…but assuming your curve is pretty reasonable at both spots), and Faerie Squadron >> Hill Giant.

   Of course, this is where the whole color pie thing comes into play. The reason the author views “Exalted” as being “Free” is because of a fairly big miscalculation: Green is supposed to get a creature better than 3/3 for four mana, and trample is almost worthless on a creature of that size.

   In the end, just play magic, look at what good players play, and follow your intuition. Doing things by the numbers in such a convoluted manner leads to at best a very small benefit to the aforementioned strategy, and at worst will make you discount internal set synergies. Noticing these is what sets the great drafters who win on a fairly regular basis apart from the decent ones who win on occasion.

   Tails2k5 | November 5, 2009, 9:03 pm | #

7. Tails, the issue with your view is that you are basing your views on comparisons between cards. This is more of a way to see if a card is playable. For example, Outriders of Jhess is not playable because it’s value is less than the expected turn of play. It is also by this same system that you can judge how RIDICULOUS Kazandu Blademaster and Vampire Nighthawk are.

   Exalted is not free, it actually holds value, however the creatures which have it normally are better than creatures that don’t have it because Wizards normally gives it for extra. This piece is designed to help viewers see which cards are awesome. Also, keep in mind that if you understand basic deckbuilding mechanics in sealed and draft, so while Bears are good, you need to scale your mana costs. This is just how to get the best for your turn.

   Samuel Blitch | November 5, 2009, 10:18 pm | #

8. But..but…playability is ALWAYS relative to the field. And furthermore, playability is not binary–some cards are quite simply ‘more playable’ than others. If the goal of this system is to discern that Vampire Knighthawk is playable, or that Mindless Null isn’t, well, these are fairly easy things to tell. The far more important decisions are the ones that aren’t obvious–for example, some cards are hard to evaluate, like Hagra Crocodile in a moderately-aggro deck and Crypt Ripper in a deck with not so many swamps, etc. etc. Vastwood Gorger, the disparaged Crocodile, and particularly Shatterskull Giant are fine cards in the right deck, and this analysis suggests they are more or less unplayable.

   Furthermore, how does Vastwood Gorger have an ETP of 6? And Pillarfield Ox an ETP of 4? How many games do you really hit your first four much less six land drops?

   Tails2k5 | November 6, 2009, 4:09 am | #

9. Tails that cost balances out with all the times that mana acceleration gives you a turn 6 on turn 4. And it’s not hard to hit a 4 drop almost every time if you know what you’re doing.

   Samuel Blitch | November 6, 2009, 9:33 am | #

10. Tails

    There is an art and a science to Magic. This is more of the science aspect design to help develop the intuitive feel later.

    As for your examples. a kicker squadron only has 3 benefit and an extra turn of ETP for flying. So you’re right that squad > Giant it has to wait for the extra turn which proves the point.

    Second, would you swing a hill giant into 4 MGR’s? Same mana invested? If you had 2 Bears would I attack with a Hill Giant? Same mana invested? While 1 on 1 the giant is superior it also entails more mana invested which should be weighed accordingly.

    Nighthawk is WAY ahead of the ETP curve. That’s why it’s a limited BOMB. In my opinion it’s one of the best cards you could hit in sealed. Of course that is why it was spoiled here on Mananation. Conspiracy theorist have long ago decided that Wizards gives the best cards to the best sites. ;)

    Mtgxman | November 6, 2009, 12:09 pm | #

11. Yes, I will always trade a Hill Giant for three 1/1s. If I had a Durkwood Boars, I’d trade it for two 2/2s. This is called card advantage. And are you agreeing that Faerie Squadron > Hill Giant? It clearly is a much higher pick, but this analysis rates it lower. MGR is a last-pick caliber card. The point is most limited games last to the point where pure ‘efficiency’ whatever that means is vastly trumped by the impact each card comes, namely, your MGR may be ‘super efficient’, but it will not affect the board at all and as such is a dead card. Faerie Squadron wins far more games than Hill Giant does.

    Samuel, do explain how to hit four land drops almost every time? Running 24 lands in a 60 card deck gives you roughly a 50% chance of doing so. And how many times have you seen a fourth turn six drop in draft? There is maybe one card that makes this possible in Zendikar.

    Tails2k5 | November 6, 2009, 2:31 pm | #

12. First off Tails, this is a limited series, not constructed. Second, I have seen a turn three 4 drop into a turn four 6 drop almost any time I play against green. The land acceleration is ridiculous. Also consider cards like, if you want to move to constructed, llanowar elves, or back to Zen limited, Greenweaver Druid. Trust me, if you do it right, you get that four mana at turn four.

    Samuel Blitch | November 10, 2009, 7:21 pm | #